Tipoff Edge

Thursday, Nov 5

2025-26 stats fading into 2026-27 (median 1 game played), adjusted for schedule + home court. Times are Central. 5 finished games now on Results →

38games
16strong picks
2O/U plays
4upset picks
Game of the day7:00 PM CT
#117ToledoRockets
6884
Strong pickProjected winner: Michigan State
The betNothing hereMichigan State is the projected winner, but the line already prices it in
LineMichigan State −26.5O/U153.5
#8Michigan StateSpartans
How to read this page
Predicted scoreThe model’s projected final. The bigger number is the pick.
Edge barHow far apart the two teams rate. A full bar is a lopsided matchup.
Strong pickThe rating gap is big enough that the model has historically been right about 80% of the time.
Upset pickThe model picks the team the betting market has as the underdog. Ultra upset is an upset pick that is also a strong pick.
LineThe sportsbook favorite and spread, and the over/under. An orange O/U pill with Over or Under marks a game where the model’s total is 10+ points off the line.
BetWake Forest +17.5−110The one bet the model likes in that game: the side, spread or total where its chance beats the price. The projected winner is not always the bet; a favorite can be the pick to win and still be a bad number. Games with no Bet pill have no edge.
#12Where a team ranks in the model among all Division I teams.
Why ...?Tap it under any game for the reasons behind the pick, in plain English.
1HFirst-half pick, from each team’s first-half scoring in its last three games.
5:00
PM
Chicago State#348Cougars
6877
LineIncarnate Word −7.5O/U145.5
Incarnate Word#268Cardinals
Incarnate Word
Total 145.6 1H Chicago State by 13.0
Why Incarnate Word?Incarnate Word by 9
  • Incarnate Word rates 268th of 366 teams, Chicago State 348th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Incarnate Word’s offense (190th nationally) against Chicago State’s defense (349th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Incarnate Word.
  • The books have Incarnate Word by 8.5; the model likes Incarnate Word by more than that, so the spread value is on Incarnate Word −8.5.
  • Projected total 146, in line with the 142.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Georgia State#306Panthers
7077
LineCharlotte −11.5O/U146.5
Charlotte#20549ers
Charlotte
Total 146.5 1H Georgia State by 7.0
Why Charlotte?Charlotte by 7 in a close one
  • Charlotte rates 205th of 366 teams, Georgia State 306th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Charlotte’s offense (134th nationally) against Georgia State’s defense (189th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Charlotte.
  • The books have Charlotte by 11.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 146, in line with the 143.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Green Bay#179Phoenix
6877
LineCincinnati −24.5O/U153.5
Cincinnati#52Bearcats
Cincinnati
Total 144.8 1H Green Bay by 10.0
Why Cincinnati?Cincinnati by 10
  • Cincinnati rates 52nd of 366 teams, Green Bay 179th: a top-75 team against an upper-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Cincinnati’s defense (14th nationally) against Green Bay’s offense (85th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Cincinnati.
  • The books have Cincinnati by 23.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Green Bay +23.5.
  • Projected total 145 vs 152.5: leans Under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Hofstra#79Pride
7368
LinePrinceton −2.5O/U139.5
Princeton#228Tigers
Upset pickHofstra
Total 141.1 1H Hofstra by 2.0
Why Hofstra?Hofstra by 5 in a close one
  • Hofstra rates 79th of 366 teams, Princeton 228th: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Hofstra’s defense (22nd nationally) against Princeton’s offense (277th).
  • Hofstra is picked on the road despite Princeton’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
  • The books favor Princeton by 2.5. The model disagrees and takes Hofstra outright, which also means Hofstra +2.5 on the spread.
  • Projected total 141, in line with the 137.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Howard#222Bison
7869
LineHoward −8.5O/U149.5
Alcorn State#365Braves
Howard
Total 146.9 1H Alcorn State by 3.0
Why Howard?Howard by 10
  • Howard rates 222nd of 366 teams, Alcorn State 365th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Howard’s defense (67th nationally) against Alcorn State’s offense (356th).
  • Howard’s numbers came against the 8th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Howard is picked on the road despite Alcorn State’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
  • The books have Howard by 9.5; the model likes Howard by more than that, so the spread value is on Howard −9.5.
  • Projected total 147, in line with the 149.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Maine#361Black Bears
6577
LineSacred Heart −5.5O/U145.5
Sacred Heart#264Pioneers
Strong pickSacred Heart
Total 141.7 1H Sacred Heart by 32.0
Why Sacred Heart?Sacred Heart by 12
  • Sacred Heart rates 264th of 366 teams, Maine 361st: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Sacred Heart’s offense (192nd nationally) against Maine’s defense (199th).
  • Sacred Heart’s numbers came against the 39th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Maine’s numbers came against the 18th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Sacred Heart.
  • The books have Sacred Heart by 5.5; the model likes Sacred Heart by more than that, so the spread value is on Sacred Heart −5.5.
  • Projected total 142, in line with the 142.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Mercer#181Bears
7482
LineVirginia Tech −21.5O/U152.5
Virginia Tech#80Hokies
Virginia Tech
Total 155.3 1H Virginia Tech by 6.0
Why Virginia Tech?Virginia Tech by 8 in a close one
  • Virginia Tech rates 80th of 366 teams, Mercer 181st: an upper-half team against an upper-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 97th vs 58th, defense 259th vs 183rd.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Virginia Tech.
  • The books have Virginia Tech by 20.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Mercer +20.5.
  • Projected total 155, in line with the 154.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Mercyhurst#291Lakers
6677
LineNotre Dame −20.5O/U141.5
Notre Dame#99Fighting Irish
Strong pickNotre Dame
Total 142.8 1H Notre Dame by 17.0
Why Notre Dame?Notre Dame by 11
  • Notre Dame rates 99th of 366 teams, Mercyhurst 291st: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 244th vs 252nd, defense 209th vs 115th.
  • Mercyhurst’s numbers came against the 9th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Notre Dame.
  • The books have Notre Dame by 21.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Mercyhurst +21.5.
  • Projected total 143 vs 137.5: leans Over.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
NJIT#345Highlanders
6974
LineIona −9.5O/U147.5
Iona#316Gaels
Iona
Total 142.9 1H NJIT by 2.0
Why Iona?Iona by 6 in a close one
  • Iona rates 316th of 366 teams, NJIT 345th: one of the weakest teams in Division I against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Iona’s offense (320th nationally) against NJIT’s defense (196th).
  • NJIT’s numbers came against the 32nd-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Iona.
  • The books have Iona by 9.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 143, in line with the 146.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
New Hampshire#343Wildcats
6972
LineRider −1.5O/U141.5
Rider#344Broncs
Rider
Total 141.2 1H Rider by 6.0
Why Rider?Rider in a coin flip, by about 3
  • Rider rates 344th of 366 teams, New Hampshire 343rd: one of the weakest teams in Division I against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 338th vs 359th, defense 335th vs 162nd.
  • New Hampshire’s numbers came against the 41st-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Rider.
  • The books favor New Hampshire by 1.5. The model disagrees and takes Rider outright, which also means Rider +1.5 on the spread.
  • Projected total 141, in line with the 141.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Binghamton#354Bearcats
6675
LineSaint Peter's −8.5O/U139.5
Saint Peter's#274Peacocks
Saint Peter's
Total 140.3 1H Binghamton by 17.0
Why Saint Peter's?Saint Peter's by 9
  • Saint Peter's rates 274th of 366 teams, Binghamton 354th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Saint Peter's’s defense (142nd nationally) against Binghamton’s offense (318th).
  • Binghamton’s numbers came against the 2nd-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Saint Peter's.
  • The books have Saint Peter's by 7.5; the model likes Saint Peter's by more than that, so the spread value is on Saint Peter's −7.5.
  • Projected total 140, in line with the 136.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
UAlbany#283Great Danes
7573
LineManhattan −4.5O/U148.5
Manhattan#338Jaspers
Upset pickUAlbany
Total 148.5 1H UAlbany by 20.0
Why UAlbany?UAlbany in a coin flip, by about 2
  • UAlbany rates 283rd of 366 teams, Manhattan 338th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly UAlbany’s defense (208th nationally) against Manhattan’s offense (213th).
  • UAlbany’s numbers came against the 35th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Manhattan’s numbers came against the 40th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • UAlbany is picked on the road despite Manhattan’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
  • The books favor Manhattan by 3.5. The model disagrees and takes UAlbany outright, which also means UAlbany +3.5 on the spread.
  • Projected total 148, in line with the 147.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
UMBC#233Retrievers
6672
LineMarist −5.5O/U141.5
Marist#165Red Foxes
Marist
Total 138.5 1H Marist by 0.0
Why Marist?Marist by 6 in a close one
  • Marist rates 165th of 366 teams, UMBC 233rd: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Marist’s defense (8th nationally) against UMBC’s offense (146th).
  • Marist’s numbers came against the 37th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • UMBC’s numbers came against the 1st-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Marist.
  • The books have Marist by 4.5; the model likes Marist by more than that, so the spread value is on Marist −4.5.
  • Projected total 138, in line with the 136.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
UMass Lowell#271River Hawks
7172
LineMerrimack −7.5O/U140.5
Merrimack#314Warriors
Merrimack
Total 143.2 1H UMass Lowell by 39.0
Why Merrimack?Merrimack in a coin flip, by about 0
  • Merrimack rates 314th of 366 teams, UMass Lowell 271st: one of the weakest teams in Division I against a lower-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 309th vs 125th, defense 267th vs 250th.
  • UMass Lowell’s numbers came against the 29th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Merrimack.
  • The books have Merrimack by 9.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on UMass Lowell +9.5.
  • Projected total 143, in line with the 140.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Bryant#339Bulldogs
6875
LineQuinnipiac −4.5O/U150.5
Quinnipiac#284Bobcats
Quinnipiac
Total 142.9 1H Bryant by 13.0
Why Quinnipiac?Quinnipiac by 7 in a close one
  • Quinnipiac rates 284th of 366 teams, Bryant 339th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Quinnipiac’s offense (268th nationally) against Bryant’s defense (258th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Quinnipiac.
  • The books have Quinnipiac by 6.5; the model likes Quinnipiac by more than that, so the spread value is on Quinnipiac −6.5.
  • Projected total 143 vs 148.5: leans Under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Vermont#245Catamounts
7172
LineVermont −1.5O/U141.5
Fairfield#270Stags
Upset pickFairfield
Total 143.1
Why Fairfield?Fairfield in a coin flip, by about 2
  • Fairfield rates 270th of 366 teams, Vermont 245th: a lower-half team against a lower-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 141st vs 201st, defense 188th vs 49th.
  • Fairfield’s numbers came against the 17th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Vermont’s numbers came against the 4th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Fairfield.
  • The books favor Vermont by 1.5. The model disagrees and takes Fairfield outright, which also means Fairfield +1.5 on the spread.
  • Projected total 143, in line with the 139.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: these numbers are still entirely last season’s; this season’s games take over as they are played.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Buffalo#269Bulls
7079
LinePittsburgh −18.5O/U151.5
Pittsburgh#115Panthers
Pittsburgh
Total 148.6 1H Pittsburgh by 26.0
Why Pittsburgh?Pittsburgh by 9
  • Pittsburgh rates 115th of 366 teams, Buffalo 269th: an upper-half team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Pittsburgh’s defense (274th nationally) against Buffalo’s offense (173rd).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Pittsburgh.
  • The books have Pittsburgh by 17.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Buffalo +17.5.
  • Projected total 149, in line with the 150.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Central Connecticut#297Blue Devils
6779
LineSyracuse −24.5O/U136.5
Syracuse#103Orange
Strong pickSyracuse
Total 146.0 1H Syracuse by 23.0
Why Syracuse?Syracuse by 11
  • Syracuse rates 103rd of 366 teams, Central Connecticut 297th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 257th vs 131st, defense 226th vs 234th.
  • Central Connecticut’s numbers came against the 6th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Syracuse.
  • The books have Syracuse by 23.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Central Connecticut +23.5.
  • Projected total 146 vs an over/under of 135.5: a 10-point gap, the Over is the play.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Cornell#175Big Red
8377
LineCornell −1.5O/U160.5
Lehigh#331Mountain Hawks
Cornell
Total 159.5 1H Cornell by 15.0
Why Cornell?Cornell by 6 in a close one
  • Cornell rates 175th of 366 teams, Lehigh 331st: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Cornell’s offense (39th nationally) against Lehigh’s defense (301st).
  • Cornell is picked on the road despite Lehigh’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
  • The books have Cornell by 1.5; the model likes Cornell by more than that, so the spread value is on Cornell −1.5.
  • Projected total 160, in line with the 159.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:00
PM
Delaware State#357Hornets
6174
LineNavy −7.5O/U138.5
Navy#215Midshipmen
Strong pickNavy
Total 135.2 1H Delaware State by 22.0
Why Navy?Navy by 13
  • Navy rates 215th of 366 teams, Delaware State 357th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Navy’s offense (119th nationally) against Delaware State’s defense (153rd).
  • Navy’s numbers came against the 7th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Delaware State’s numbers came against the 3rd-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Navy.
  • The books have Navy by 9.5; the model likes Navy by more than that, so the spread value is on Navy −9.5.
  • Projected total 135, in line with the 136.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:30
PM
Jackson State#360Tigers
7082
LineTulane −12.5O/U153.5
Tulane#263Green Wave
Strong pickTulane
Total 151.3 1H Tulane by 17.0
Why Tulane?Tulane by 12
  • Tulane rates 263rd of 366 teams, Jackson State 360th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Tulane’s defense (269th nationally) against Jackson State’s offense (357th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Tulane.
  • The books have Tulane by 12.5; the model likes Tulane by more than that, so the spread value is on Tulane −12.5.
  • Projected total 151, in line with the 152.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:30
PM
Northwestern State#295Demons
7081
LineMSST −21.5O/U153.5
Mississippi State#129Bulldogs
Mississippi State
Total 151.2 1H Mississippi State by 21.0
Why Mississippi State?Mississippi State by 10
  • Mississippi State rates 129th of 366 teams, Northwestern State 295th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Mississippi State’s offense (245th nationally) against Northwestern State’s defense (266th).
  • Mississippi State has played the 33rd-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Mississippi State.
  • The books have Mississippi State by 21.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Northwestern State +21.5.
  • Projected total 151, in line with the 151.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
6:30
PM
Stonehill#305Skyhawks
6274
LineFordham −18.5O/U144.5
Fordham#111Rams
Strong pickFordham
Total 135.9 1H Stonehill by 16.0
Why Fordham?Fordham by 11
  • Fordham rates 111th of 366 teams, Stonehill 305th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Fordham’s offense (231st nationally) against Stonehill’s defense (21st).
  • Stonehill’s numbers came against the 14th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Fordham.
  • The books have Fordham by 20.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 136 vs 141.5: leans Under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Jacksonville#203Dolphins
6686
LineFlorida −35.5O/U156.5
Florida#6Gators
Strong pickFlorida
Total 152.7 1H Jacksonville by 6.0
Why Florida?Florida comfortably, by 20
  • Florida rates 6th of 366 teams, Jacksonville 203rd: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Florida’s offense (6th nationally) against Jacksonville’s defense (195th).
  • Florida has played the 18th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Florida.
  • The books have Florida by 36.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Jacksonville +36.5.
  • Projected total 153, in line with the 155.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Jacksonville State#159Gamecocks
7273
LineSouth Alabama −5.5O/U142.5
South Alabama#200Jaguars
South Alabama
Total 144.2 1H Jacksonville State by 29.0
Why South Alabama?South Alabama in a coin flip, by about 1
  • South Alabama rates 200th of 366 teams, Jacksonville State 159th: a lower-half team against an upper-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 266th vs 233rd, defense 42nd vs 40th.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for South Alabama.
  • The books have South Alabama by 4.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 144, in line with the 140.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Le Moyne#320Dolphins
6781
LineCreighton −29.5O/U156.5
Creighton#93Bluejays
Strong pickCreighton
Total 148.5 1H Creighton by 1.0
Why Creighton?Creighton by 14
  • Creighton rates 93rd of 366 teams, Le Moyne 320th: an upper-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Creighton’s offense (214th nationally) against Le Moyne’s defense (159th).
  • Le Moyne’s numbers came against the 12th-easiest schedule, so they are discounted.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Creighton.
  • The books have Creighton by 29.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Le Moyne +29.5.
  • Projected total 148 vs 156.5: leans Under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Northern Illinois#326Huskies
6886
LineTulsa −14.5O/U154.5
Tulsa#54Golden Hurricane
Strong pickTulsa
Total 153.5 1H Tulsa by 6.0
Why Tulsa?Tulsa comfortably, by 18
  • Tulsa rates 54th of 366 teams, Northern Illinois 326th: a top-75 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Tulsa’s offense (26th nationally) against Northern Illinois’s defense (324th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Tulsa.
  • The books have Tulsa by 14.5; the model likes Tulsa by more than that, so the spread value is on Tulsa −14.5.
  • Projected total 154, in line with the 154.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Toledo#117Rockets
6884
LineMichigan State −26.5O/U153.5
Michigan State#8Spartans
Strong pickMichigan State
Total 152.1 1H Michigan State by 17.0
Why Michigan State?Michigan State comfortably, by 16
  • Michigan State rates 8th of 366 teams, Toledo 117th: a top-25 team against an upper-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Michigan State’s defense (23rd nationally) against Toledo’s offense (37th).
  • Michigan State has played the 11th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Michigan State.
  • The books have Michigan State by 26.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 152, in line with the 155.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
VMI#346Keydets
6890
LineSMU −24.5O/U159.5
SMU#29Mustangs
Strong pickSMU
Total 158.0 1H VMI by 20.0
Why SMU?SMU comfortably, by 23
  • SMU rates 29th of 366 teams, VMI 346th: a top-75 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly SMU’s offense (18th nationally) against VMI’s defense (334th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for SMU.
  • The books have SMU by 24.5; the model likes SMU by more than that, so the spread value is on SMU −24.5.
  • Projected total 158, in line with the 160.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
West Georgia#307Wolves
7277
LineLoyola Chicago −18.5O/U144.5
Loyola Chicago#273Ramblers
Loyola Chicago
Total 148.4 1H Loyola Chicago by 5.0
Why Loyola Chicago?Loyola Chicago by 5 in a close one
  • Loyola Chicago rates 273rd of 366 teams, West Georgia 307th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 336th vs 242nd, defense 284th vs 295th.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Loyola Chicago.
  • The books have Loyola Chicago by 17.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on West Georgia +17.5.
  • Projected total 148, in line with the 145.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
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Coastal Carolina#253Chanticleers
6085
LineDuke −40.5O/U147.5
Duke#2Blue Devils
Strong pickDuke
Total 145.2 1H Coastal Carolina by 4.0
Why Duke?Duke comfortably, by 24
  • Duke rates 2nd of 366 teams, Coastal Carolina 253rd: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Duke’s offense (7th nationally) against Coastal Carolina’s defense (64th).
  • Duke has played the 16th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Duke.
  • The books have Duke by 40.5, more than the model’s gap supports, so the spread value is on Coastal Carolina +40.5.
  • Projected total 145 vs 149.5: leans Under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
East Texas A&M#308Lions
7077
LineRice −4.5O/U145.5
Rice#226Owls
Rice
Total 146.4 1H Rice by 13.0
Why Rice?Rice by 7 in a close one
  • Rice rates 226th of 366 teams, East Texas A&M 308th: a lower-half team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Rice’s offense (256th nationally) against East Texas A&M’s defense (178th).
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Rice.
  • The books have Rice by 3.5; the model likes Rice by more than that, so the spread value is on Rice −3.5.
  • Projected total 146, in line with the 145.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:00
PM
Gardner-Webb#363Runnin' Bulldogs
6492
LineTexas −41.5O/U156.5
Texas#20Longhorns
Strong pickTexas
Total 155.9 1H Texas by 32.0
Why Texas?Texas comfortably, by 27
  • Texas rates 20th of 366 teams, Gardner-Webb 363rd: a top-25 team against one of the weakest teams in Division I.
  • The edge is mostly Texas’s offense (8th nationally) against Gardner-Webb’s defense (364th).
  • Texas has played the 29th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Texas.
  • The books have Texas by 41.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 156, in line with the 154.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
7:30
PM
Pennsylvania#188Quakers
6685
LineIllinois −30.5O/U169.5Under
Illinois#7Fighting Illini
Strong pickIllinois
Total 151.4
Why Illinois?Illinois comfortably, by 19
  • Illinois rates 7th of 366 teams, Pennsylvania 188th: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Illinois’s offense (2nd nationally) against Pennsylvania’s defense (158th).
  • Illinois has played the 12th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Illinois.
  • The books have Illinois by 29.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 151 vs an over/under of 172.5: a 21-point gap, the Under is the play.
  • Early-season note: these numbers are still entirely last season’s; this season’s games take over as they are played.
  • Full breakdown →
7:30
PM
South Florida#50Bulls
7775
LineDePaul −6.5O/U150.5
DePaul#122Blue Demons
Upset pickSouth Florida
Total 151.5 1H South Florida by 14.0
Why South Florida?South Florida in a coin flip, by about 2
  • South Florida rates 50th of 366 teams, DePaul 122nd: a top-75 team against an upper-half team.
  • The edge is mostly South Florida’s offense (50th nationally) against DePaul’s defense (96th).
  • South Florida is picked on the road despite DePaul’s 2.7-point home-court edge.
  • The books favor DePaul by 6.5. The model disagrees and takes South Florida outright, which also means South Florida +6.5 on the spread.
  • Projected total 152, in line with the 149.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
8:00
PM
Bethune-Cookman#281Wildcats
6785
LineTexas Tech −29.5O/U152.5
Texas Tech#24Red Raiders
Strong pickTexas Tech
Total 151.9 1H Texas Tech by 10.0
Why Texas Tech?Texas Tech comfortably, by 18
  • Texas Tech rates 24th of 366 teams, Bethune-Cookman 281st: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Texas Tech’s offense (91st nationally) against Bethune-Cookman’s defense (219th).
  • Texas Tech has played the 5th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Texas Tech.
  • The books have Texas Tech by 29.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 152, in line with the 149.5 over/under.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
8:00
PM
Towson#142Tigers
7174
LineUtah −9.5O/U141.5BetOver 137.5−110
Utah#130Utes
Utah
Total 144.4 1H Towson by 7.0
Why Utah?Utah by 3 in a close one
  • Utah rates 130th of 366 teams, Towson 142nd: an upper-half team against an upper-half team.
  • The two are close on both ends: offense 199th vs 210th, defense 343rd vs 78th.
  • Utah has played the 34th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Utah.
  • The books have Utah by 8.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 144 vs 137.5: leans Over.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →
9:30
PM
Cal Poly#231Mustangs
6992
LineArizona −30.5O/U173.5UnderBetUnder 173.5−110
Arizona#4Wildcats
Strong pickArizona
Total 160.7 1H Cal Poly by 6.0
Why Arizona?Arizona comfortably, by 23
  • Arizona rates 4th of 366 teams, Cal Poly 231st: a top-25 team against a lower-half team.
  • The edge is mostly Arizona’s offense (5th nationally) against Cal Poly’s defense (245th).
  • Arizona has played the 6th-toughest schedule, so its numbers are earned.
  • Home court adds 2.7 points for Arizona.
  • The books have Arizona by 30.5, right about where the model is. No spread edge.
  • Projected total 161 vs an over/under of 173.5: a 13-point gap, the Under is the play.
  • Early-season note: about 95% of these numbers are still last season’s.
  • Full breakdown →